August 2026 - Summer softening? Or market shift?

Financial markets are looking for stability as we move into August. Just in the last 14 days markets felt a lot of fluctuation as values dropped and rebounded within a week. While it’s nerve wracking during the process, I always look at those market drops as a great way to buy on sale! I’m very curious to see how strong the “Santa Claus Rally” is this year. 

Quarter 2 GDP slowed to an annualized rate of 1.5%, lower than the projected 2.1% in quarter 1. The Federal Reserve also held their rate unchanged for the 5th straight meeting. Oil prices have continued their volatility as the conflict in Iran repeatedly starts/stops. As of this video, crude is about $77 a barrel, which is $15 higher than the beginning of the year, but $36 lower than the peak of price seen in April. Hopefully we’re seeing some oil price stability, which should help balance transportation costs and inflation.

Nationally the housing market is seeing some small median sold price appreciation, but that growth is being tempered by the continually increasing inventory levels. Higher mortgage rates has also put downward pressure on the market, as loan application numbers have dropped, and some buyers have stepped away from the market. In response I expect we’ll start to see a sharp increase in the number of listings that get pulled from the market as Sellers decide to wait out the slow market. 

Locally, the market is still showing signs of life, but the summar market will be coming to an end soon. At that point only the most motivated buyers and sellers will be active in the market. I’m expecting a repeat of last year as we start to see a steep increase in the number of listings being pulled from the market. Rising rates have also pushed some Buyers out of the market temporarily. Without the extra demand, some sellers arent getting the prices they hoped for. 

Quickly touching on AI, I’m hearing a lot of comparison to the Dot Com bubble of the early 2000’s. The big question is, is AI getting too far out ahead of the market and risking a sharper pullback? I dont have access to enough information to answer those questions, but it’s definitely something worth watching. What are your thoughts on AI? Is it a net positive or negative for society? What about for commerce? For technology? For Productivity?

Placer County

Residential homes for sale increased by 1.8% for July, which is 5.3% less than last year. Pendeds fell 2.7% from June to July, but it’s still 16.9% better than pending activity from 2025.

Homes sold fell 5% in July, after a strong June. The number of homes Sold also rose 5.8% over the same month last year, which is a good indication for slightly better sales volume in 2026.

Days on market increased 5.6% to 38 days. The List Price to Sold Price fell back down to 97% from 99% in a significant change. However, the average list price also fell, so this wasnt necessarily a case of Sellers listing too high. 

The Median Sold Price for Single Family Homes rose by 1.6% from $679,000 to $690,000 in Placer County. A 1.2% increase from the same month last year.

The inventory levels increased modestly from 2.3 months to 2.5, which is still about 10.7% lower inventory than this time last year in Placer County. So if you’re having a challenge finding the right home, it’s not just you!

July may be showing some cracks in the strength of the market, heading into Q3. The market stats arent great, but they’re not bad either. This may be what a “normal” market feels like after years of volatility.

Tri county August Stats

Homes for sale increased by 4.0% in July, following a seasonal pattern of increasing listing inventory since December. This is 3.4% lower than last year though, and the market continues to feel the impact of gas prices, inflation, and the fluctuating mid-east conflicts.

Pendings dropped by 3.5%, potentially due to stubborn home prices and rising mortgage rates

Home sales fell by 8.8%, as the last few months of buyer challenges have finally caught up with the 30 day sales cycle.

Days on Market increased 11.1% to 40 days, indication potential slowing in the market. However, the List Price to Sold Price ratio held stable at 98%. Good news for Sellers.

The Median Sold price of Single Family Homes fell by 1.8%, back down to $599,000, and giving back the last 2 months of price gains. Conversely, the Average Sold Price increased by the same 1.8% after a drop in June. 

The Months of Inventory rose from 2.3 months to 2.6 months. This is a typical move for Q3, but I’ll be more concerned if the inventory levels start to sit above 3 months. 

Overall, this one moth doesnt make a trend, but it may indicate the seasonal softening of the market. 

If you’d like a PDF report for your local area, comment with your zip code, and I’ll send it over!